Dry Van Capacity Crisis 2026: What's Driving It, What the Data Shows, and What Comes Next

The dry van freight market that spent three years grinding carriers into the ground has shifted. Spring 2026 is running hotter than anything the industry has seen since the post-pandemic boom - national spot rates have broken to cycle highs, tender rejection rates are climbing into the mid-teens, and carriers are turning down loads because they have better options elsewhere. For shippers, this is an unwelcome change after years of leverage. For experienced, compliant drivers and the carriers who employ them, it's the cycle turning the way cycles eventually do.

But this isn't just seasonality. The 2026 capacity crunch has structural causes that will outlast spring produce season and summer construction freight. Understanding what's actually driving it matters whether you're a shipper trying to protect your supply chain or a driver deciding where to take your career next.

Where Rates Actually Stand Right Now

National dry van spot rates tracked on FreightWaves' National Truckload Index hit a cycle high of $2.89 per mile in spring 2026 - the strongest level since 2022 and roughly $0.50 per mile higher than rates bottomed out at in the 2023-2024 trough. That's not a small move. On a 500-mile lane, $0.50 per mile is $250 per load. Multiply that across hundreds of loads per week and you're talking about a meaningful shift in the economics of shipping.

Year-over-year comparisons on key lanes are running 20-25% higher in early 2026. C.H. Robinson revised its full-year 2026 dry van rate forecast upward twice in quick succession, landing at approximately 8% year-over-year growth - a significant upward revision from the 2-4% they were projecting six months earlier.

Tender rejection rates nationally are sitting in the low-to-mid teens, with the Midwest running above 18%. When carriers are rejecting that share of contracted loads in favor of spot freight, it means routing guides - the tiered carrier lists shippers rely on to move their freight - are starting to break down. Freight that was moving reliably on contract is getting pushed to secondary and tertiary carriers, or to brokers at spot prices. For shippers who built their 2026 budgets around 2024-era contract rates, this is a problem that's already showing up in their invoice files.

Cause 1: Three Years of Carrier Attrition Finally Caught Up

The 2022-2025 freight recession was long and painful by any historical measure. After the pandemic demand surge pushed rates and volumes to historic highs, the market reversed sharply in mid-2022 and kept falling. Carriers that expanded during the boom found themselves with more equipment and overhead than the freight market could support at profitable rates. The culling that followed played out gradually - not in a single crash, but in a slow bleed of carrier exits, downsizing, and owner-operators walking away from an industry that stopped paying them what the job was worth.

Through most of 2025, the pace of exits slowed compared to 2023-2024 peaks, but capacity kept shrinking. By the time demand started showing seasonal strength in late 2025 and early 2026, there was meaningfully less truck supply than there had been two years prior. Markets that were oversupplied with capacity in 2023 found themselves at or near balance by spring 2026 - and balance means any demand spike tips the scale toward tightness fast.

The implication for shippers is that the capacity buffer that absorbed demand shocks throughout the downcycle is largely gone. The next time a major weather event, a port disruption, or a demand surge hits, there's less slack in the system to absorb it without rate spikes. That's the structural change that separates 2026 from 2024.

Cause 2: FMCSA Enforcement Removed Drivers the Industry Was Counting On

While carrier attrition was shrinking the number of trucks, a sweeping regulatory enforcement wave was shrinking the number of eligible drivers at the same time. The cumulative effect of several separate actions is what makes this piece of the capacity story significant.

The Non-Domiciled CDL Crackdown

FMCSA's Final Rule on non-domiciled CDL eligibility, effective March 16, 2026, fundamentally changed who qualifies for a commercial driver's license in the United States if they're not a domestic resident. The rule restricts eligibility to holders of specific employment-based visas and requires stricter documentation, federal background verification, and annual in-person renewals. Employment authorization documents alone no longer qualify. Estimates put the total number of non-domiciled CDLs affected above 90,000, and some analysts have cited figures as high as 200,000 depending on how broadly the affected population is defined.

The safety rationale is straightforward - the prior system had a gap where U.S. databases couldn't verify the driving history of foreign-domiciled applicants, creating a situation where drivers with problematic foreign records could obtain a CDL by presenting documents that didn't surface those records. Closing that gap is a legitimate safety improvement. The capacity effect is real regardless of the rationale: removing a meaningful share of active CDL holders from the eligible driver pool tightens supply.

The CDL School Purge

Alongside the CDL eligibility changes, FMCSA conducted what analysts described as the largest enforcement action in agency history against low-quality driver training programs. Nearly 3,000 training providers were removed from the Training Provider Registry. In February 2026, the DOT followed up by forcing 550 driver training schools to close outright following site visits that found unqualified instructors, inadequate testing, and other safety violations. Over 44% of all CDL schools came under some level of federal scrutiny.

The schools being shut down weren't producing professional drivers - they were producing paper credentials. From a highway safety standpoint, removing them is unambiguously positive. The capacity effect, though, is that the pipeline of new drivers entering the industry is now constrained at exactly the moment the market needs it to grow. Legitimate CDL schools with proper instructors and real training programs take time to scale. The industry is looking at a meaningful lag before new driver supply can respond to market conditions.

English Language Proficiency Enforcement

Starting in mid-2025, FMCSA began actively enforcing existing English language proficiency requirements at roadside inspections rather than treating them as a formality. Drivers who can't communicate adequately with officers in English are placed out of service on the spot. The requirement itself wasn't new - it had been on the books for decades - but consistent enforcement effectively changed who could actively work in the industry. The impact on overall capacity has been debated, but it added to the cumulative pressure on driver availability coming from multiple directions at once.

Cause 3: Tariffs Created Demand Volatility and Cost Inflation

Tariff policy through 2025 and into 2026 affected the freight market in two distinct ways, and understanding both matters for reading where the market goes from here.

The first effect was demand-side volatility. Importers accelerated shipments ahead of tariff announcement dates in 2025, creating sharp demand spikes as goods were frontloaded into U.S. ports and warehouses before new rates took effect. Those spikes temporarily tightened capacity and drove spot rates higher during frontloading windows. After each wave of frontloading passed, demand would soften as shippers absorbed the inventory they'd pulled forward. The result was a market characterized by sharp swings rather than steady growth - making it difficult for carriers and shippers alike to plan consistently.

The second effect was cost-side inflation. Tariffs on steel and aluminum drove up truck manufacturing prices, making new equipment significantly more expensive. At the same time, elevated financing costs from interest rates that stayed higher for longer meant carriers were paying more to borrow for fleet purchases. The combination suppressed replacement activity - carriers that would normally upgrade aging trucks held off because the economics didn't work. That means the average age of operating equipment crept up, and the rate of new capacity entering the market slowed at the exact time the industry needed fleet renewal.

Cause 4: Spring Demand Is Compounding on an Already Thin Market

The structural capacity squeeze described above would be significant on its own. Spring 2026 layered cyclical demand growth on top of it. Several freight verticals accelerate simultaneously in the March-June window, and in 2026 they're doing it into a market with less available capacity than recent springs provided.

Produce season ramps up as growing regions in Florida, California, and the Southeast hit their spring harvests, adding reefer demand that competes for drivers and equipment across modes. Construction freight accelerates as projects restart after winter and new builds get underway, pulling flatbed capacity and indirectly tightening van lanes as equipment and drivers shift toward higher-paying loads. Home improvement and gardening freight builds with the warmer months. Ocean bookings from Asia recovered sharply after Chinese New Year, which landed later than average in 2026, pushing an import wave into domestic distribution networks during a period when truck capacity was already strained.

FreightWaves characterized spring 2026 as arriving hotter and earlier than the market has seen in recent years - not because demand is at historic highs, but because demand that's merely normal is meeting capacity that's been compressed by years of attrition and months of regulatory enforcement.

What This Means for Shippers

The shipper leverage that defined 2023 and 2024 is gone. Carriers that were accepting loads at below-cost rates just to keep trucks moving are now in a position to be selective. Routing guide compliance is deteriorating as primary carriers reject tenders to chase spot loads, pushing freight to backup carriers or brokers at higher spot prices. Shippers who built their 2026 transportation budgets around continued soft market conditions are finding the math doesn't work anymore.

The practical response depends on your freight profile. If you have consistent, predictable volume on established lanes, locking in contracted rates now with asset carriers who have real operations in your corridors is more valuable than it was six months ago. Rates are elevated from recent lows but haven't yet reached 2021-2022 peaks - there's still room to lock in rates below where the market could go if the cycle continues. Waiting for rates to soften before contracting carries the risk that softness doesn't arrive before you need capacity for peak season.

If your freight is irregular or seasonal, understanding your spot market exposure and having relationships with reliable brokers and asset carriers before you need them - rather than scrambling during a crunch - is the preparation that pays off. The carriers who know your freight, your facilities, and your appointment requirements will always perform better than a carrier being dispatched cold off a load board to your dock for the first time.

What This Means for Experienced Drivers

For drivers with clean records, proper credentials, and real OTR experience, the 2026 market is the best operating environment since 2022. Carriers that spent three years cutting costs everywhere possible now have margin to reinvest - in equipment, in pay, and in the driver relationships that keep trucks moving reliably.

The enforcement environment matters here too. The CDL crackdown is specifically removing unqualified and fraudulently credentialed drivers from the market. That reduces the number of bad actors that compliant, professional drivers were competing with for loads and for carrier relationships. A driver with 2+ years of real OTR experience, a clean CSA record, and verifiable employment history is in genuinely short supply right now. Carriers competing for that driver have to offer something worth staying for.

MigWay's dry van operation runs the East Coast, Northeast, and Midwest - the corridors where the 2026 capacity tightening is being felt most acutely. The performance bonus structure means drivers whose consistency earns the full 10 CPM on top of the 55 CPM base are earning at the higher end of the market on a sustained basis, not just during spot rate spikes. Both empty and loaded miles count, so your weekly gross reflects what you actually drove, not just the loaded portion. And the 2019-2026 fleet means the truck you're in isn't going to be the reason you miss a delivery window.

How Long Does This Last?

The structural causes of the 2026 capacity tightening don't resolve quickly. Carriers that exited the market over three years don't return overnight. The constrained CDL school pipeline won't produce replacement drivers on a short timeline. Equipment price inflation from tariffs hasn't reversed. C.H. Robinson's revised 8% year-over-year rate forecast reflects the view that the supply-side constraints are durable enough to support elevated rates through 2026 even without a material demand surge.

The main risks to the bullish capacity view are demand-side. If tariff-related trade disruptions materially reduce import volumes, if consumer spending weakens, or if the industrial rebound stalls, freight volumes could soften in ways that give shippers back some leverage. The market is more fragile and more responsive to shocks in both directions than it was during the long, gradual downcycle of 2022-2025.

What's clear is that the environment of abundant cheap capacity that shippers enjoyed for two-plus years is behind us. The carriers and drivers who survived the downcycle by running professional, compliant, well-maintained operations are the ones positioned to perform in what comes next.

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Frequently Asked Questions: Dry Van Capacity 2026

Why are dry van spot rates rising in 2026?

Several forces are converging at once. Three years of carrier attrition have removed a significant amount of trucking capacity from the market - smaller carriers that survived on thin margins during the 2023-2024 freight recession have continued exiting. At the same time, FMCSA enforcement actions in 2025-2026 have removed a meaningful number of non-domiciled CDL holders and shut down hundreds of CDL training schools, tightening the driver pool. Spring freight demand from produce season, construction, and home improvement is layering on top of a capacity base that's already smaller than it was two years ago.

What is the non-domiciled CDL rule and how does it affect trucking capacity?

FMCSA's Final Rule on non-domiciled CDLs, effective March 16, 2026, tightened eligibility criteria for foreign nationals seeking commercial driver's licenses in the United States. The rule restricts CDL eligibility to holders of specific employment-based visas and requires stricter documentation and annual in-person renewals. Estimates put the total number of non-domiciled CDLs affected above 90,000. Removing these drivers from the active capacity pool contributes to the tightening conditions analysts and brokers have been tracking in spot market data since late 2025.

How high have dry van spot rates gone in 2026?

National dry van spot rates tracked on FreightWaves' National Truckload Index hit a cycle high of $2.89 per mile in spring 2026 - the strongest level since 2022. Rates have climbed roughly $0.50 per mile net of fuel over the past several months, recovering from the low $2.00s that defined much of 2023 and 2024. Year-over-year comparisons on key lanes are running 20-25% higher in early 2026.

What caused the long freight recession from 2022 to 2025?

The 2022-2025 freight downcycle followed a period of extreme demand during the pandemic, when supply chain disruptions and stimulus spending pushed freight volumes and rates to historic highs. When consumer demand normalized and import volumes moderated, the industry was left with more truck capacity than freight to fill it. Carriers that entered the market during the boom years found rates falling below their operating costs. The resulting attrition over three years gradually removed the excess capacity that had been suppressing rates.

How do tariffs affect dry van trucking capacity and rates?

Tariffs affect trucking in two primary ways. First, import tariffs change the volume and timing of goods moving into the U.S. - frontloading of imports ahead of tariff announcements in 2025 created temporary demand spikes. Second, tariffs on goods like steel and aluminum directly inflate truck manufacturing costs, slowing fleet replacement activity. Higher operating costs also pressure smaller carriers who were already operating at thin margins.

What is a tender rejection rate and what does it signal about the freight market?

Tender rejection rate measures what percentage of load tenders carriers are turning down rather than accepting at the contracted rate. When rejections climb into the low-to-mid teens, as they were in spring 2026, it signals carriers have enough alternative options that they can afford to walk away from contracted freight. A rising rejection rate is one of the clearest real-time indicators that the market is shifting power toward carriers.

What happened to CDL training schools in 2025 and 2026?

FMCSA conducted the largest enforcement action in its history against low-quality CDL training programs. Nearly 3,000 training providers were removed from the Training Provider Registry, and in February 2026 the DOT forced 550 driver training schools to close after finding violations including unqualified instructors and inadequate testing standards. The result is a constrained pipeline of new drivers entering the industry at a time when the market needs capacity to grow.

How should shippers respond to a tighter dry van capacity market?

In a tightening market, shippers who rely primarily on spot freight face the highest rate volatility and the least reliable service. The most effective response is building contracted relationships with asset carriers who have established lanes in your shipping corridors before you need emergency capacity. Evaluate your routing guides and understand your backup carrier options - primary carriers rejecting tenders in favor of spot loads is a pattern that accelerates as the market tightens.

What does the 2026 capacity environment mean for dry van drivers?

For experienced, compliant drivers, the 2026 market is more favorable than anything the industry has seen since 2022. Carriers with pricing power are improving their margins after three years of compressed profitability, which supports better pay structures and equipment investment. The enforcement environment also rewards drivers with clean records and proper credentials. Drivers considering a career move to a stronger carrier are entering a market where experienced drivers have genuine leverage.

Will dry van rates keep rising through the rest of 2026?

Most freight market analysts project continued rate elevation through at least mid-2026, with C.H. Robinson revising its 2026 dry van rate forecast to approximately 8% year-over-year growth. The supply-side constraints driving the market - carrier attrition, CDL enforcement, constrained driver pipeline - don't resolve quickly. Whether the market sustains depends primarily on whether freight demand holds up through the second half of the year.